IMAGE CREDIT: Jabin Botsford / The Washington Post
President Obama made the news on Monday when he told CNN that he would have beaten President-Elect Trump if he had been able to run for a third term. Trump later responded that he would have defeated Obama in an election. With this war of words, we decided to take a look and see who would win in a hypothetical matchup.
To do this, we looked at electoral maps from 2008, 2012, and 2016. We then compiled a list of states that President Obama won in both his elections, which looked like this
Then, we made a list of states that Trump won in the 2016 election, which looked like this
After that, we compared the two lists, and if a state appeared in one list, and not the other, then we considered it a safe win for that person. If a state appeared in both lists, it was considered a tossup state. Looking at these results, here is what states President Obama would have safely won
Here are the states that President-Elect Trump would have safely won
Here are the states that would be considered a tossup state
As you can see, neither of them would have had a 270-plus majority in the electoral college to win, but Obama has a considerable lead, and would just have to win a few of the battleground states in order to win a third term.
To answer the question who would win, we have to call it a draw, although President Obama would have the advantage if they were to run against each other.